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Break probability calculation and sensitivity analysis of horizontal pressure pipe   CUI Qinglan1, GUO Yun1, and PENG Changhong1   1. School of Nuclear Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Room 1312, Science and Technology Laboratory Building (East), West Campus of USTC, Shushan District, 230027, China (cqlc@mail.ustc.edu.cn;  guoyun79@ustc.edu.cn; pengch@ustc.edu.cn)   Abstract: This study referred to the algorithm of PRAISE (Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events) computer code, selected several horizontal pressure pipes of different sizes, and calculated the break probabilities at a weld joint of these pipes under different operating conditions. The influence of pipe sizes and operation conditions on break probability was analyzed. The conclusion is that the rise of temperature and pressure will increase the break probability, and the increase in the wall thickness will decrease the break probability. By using ultrasonic examination, the probability of pipe break can be reduced. Keyword: pipe break; crack; PRAISE computer code
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