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Transition of the mission success probability with the progression of nuclear power plant accident   MATSUOKA Takeshi 1, 2   1. College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, 150001, China 2. Center for Fundamental Education, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya City, Japan (mats@cc.utsunomiya-u.ac.jp)   Abstract: In case of a nuclear power plant accident, the plant configuration drastically changes and required missions also change. The GO-FLOW is applied to estimate mission success probabilities of nuclear power plant system under severe accident conditions. A hypothetical sequence of accident conditions has been settled based on the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The following conditions are considered in the analysis. Loop structures in nuclear power plant system. Many components are placed in high stressed condition in an accident, and common cause failures have to be considered in reliability analyses. For the prevention of accident, “ad hoc” and “flexible” actions are required. It is pointed out the necessity of the estimation of human performance in reliability analysis. The results are expressed in graphical style which will correspond to a display window of risk monitor system, which visualizes risk state intuitively. The analysis procedure presented here indicates that mission success probabilities with the progression of accident are easily obtained by using the GO-FLOW methodology. Keyword: nuclear safety; reliability analysis; availability; loop structure; common cause failure; GO-FLOW
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