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A new sensitivity measure of functional failure probability and a comprehensive sensitivity analysis procedure of thermal hydraulic passive systems   WANG Dongqing1, WANG Baosheng2, YU Xiang3, JIANG Jin4, and ZHANG Jianmin5   1. School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi’an, Shanxi, 710049, P.R. China (wangdongqing@stu.xjtu.edu.cn) 2. School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi’an, Shanxi, 710049, P.R. China (wang.baosheng@stu.xjtu.edu.cn) 3. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A 5B9, Canada, (xiangyu1110@gmail.com) 4. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A 5B9, Canada, (jjiang@eng.uwo.ca) 5. School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710049, P.R. China (zhangjm@mail.xjtu.edu.cn)   Abstract: In this paper, a new sensitivity measure of functional failure probability to uncertain parameters of thermal hydraulic passive systems is proposed. The sensitivity measure is dependent on the partial derivative of functional failure probability with respect to distribution probability of uncertain parameters in inadmissible regions, in which uncertain parameters lead to greater functional failure probability than in other regions. This measure carries similar meaning as sensitivity of hardware failure probability to components failure probability. Thus, with this measure sensitivity of total failure probability of the system to uncertain parameters and components can be compared directly.A procedure for sensitivity analysis of total failure probability with respect to uncertain parameters and hardware components is presented. Steps in this procedure include 1) estimation of functional failure probability and sensitivity to uncertain parameters, 2) estimation of hardware failure probability and sensitivity to hardware components, and 3) calculation of total failure probability and sensitivity to these two types of factors, i.e. uncertain parameters and hardware components.A passive residual heat removal system is chosen for a case-study in feasibility validation of the proposed procedure. Sensitivity analysis is carried out and ranking of the uncertain parameters and components based on their contributions to the total failure probability is also presented. Keyword: thermal hydraulic passive systems; functional failure; sensitivity measure; sensitivity analysis procedure
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