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* 教材（２）リスクとリスクアセスメントの基本的な考え方 [#w2ff1c5b]
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** 1.リスクとは [#sf98e937]
*** 1.1 リスクの語源とさまざまな使われ方 [#ad6c4044]
フランス・ボルドーマネージメントスクールのシャミーヴァ教授は，「リスクという用語がフランスや日本社会で爆発的に増大した現代だが，リスクのもつ意味が正確に定義されないまま曖昧に使われている．リスクとは，ラテン語で，危険を認知し，そこをなんとか対処するという意味の“risico”，“risicus”と論争，紛争という意味の“rixicare”の二つのことばが原義で，リスクの本来のニュアンスである」と指摘している．1)また社会学者の吉田 純 京大教授によれば，｢リスクの原義はルネサンス時代のイタリア語で｢危険を冒しても，あえて新しいことをする｣という意味だった．だが，近代社会でのリスクの意味合いは“自由な選択に伴う意図せざる結果”と定義できる｣という．2)
確かに近代社会になって人々は封建的権威の束縛から解放され自由が拡大した．だが人々にチャンス拡大の反面，科学技術の発展もあいまってリスクも拡大した．わが国社会で最近氾濫するリスクの使われ方の実例を表1-1に示す． 3)このような社会用語としてのリスクの持つ背景やさまざまな問題については，本書の第３部「社会システムと産業技術リスク」において広範に論じることとしたい．
#ref("表１.png","center")
CENTER:表１ 社会用語としてのリスクのさまざまな使われ方
さて，欧米においては1970年代から，技術システムの安全を管理し，そのリスクマネージメントを実効化するために，科学的用語と称して主に工学的観点からリスクが定義され，リスクアセスメント手法が発展してきた．以下本章では，工学的な観点からのリスクの定義から始め，そのリスクマネージメントへの応用への基本的な考え方へと展開する．
*** 1.2 リスクの定義3) [#r55dc960]
リスクという言葉の持つさまざまな観点を分析してその重要な要素を抽出し，工学者の使用出来る用語としてのリスクに初めて言及したものは，世界中のさまざまな国，人々の生活や健康に関わる国連機関であるユネスコによる定義である．ユネスコの定義では，リスクを危険源（Hazard），脆弱性（Vulnerability），潜在的損失（Potential loss）の3つの要素の生成物（Product）として捉え，
Risk = Hazard×Vulnerability×Potential Loss (1-1)
と定義した．ここではリスクの意味を3つの要因に整理している．
さらにS. Kaplan による次の定義は，科学的用語としてリスクの定量化を意識した出発点になる．
Risk= 〈 Si, Pi, Ci 〉, (i=1,2,・・・, N) (1-2)
ただしSi：i番目の事故シナリオ，Pi： i番目の事故シナリオの発生確率（頻度），Ci： i番目の事故シナリオが発生した場合の災害規模である．
災害による損失金額や死傷者などの異なったさまざまな被害の期待値は，(1-2)式をもとにした次式によりリスク値として表現できる．
#ref("equ1.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-3)
そして災害による被害を例えば即死者数のように1種類に限定した場合には，次式になる．
#ref("equ2.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-4)
但し，(1-4)式右辺第3式でのkはシナリオ数，Cは一定値である．(1-4)式でCは比例定数と考えれば，リスクは，次式のように特定の被害状態にいたる予想頻度（Predicted frequency)の平均値となる．
#ref("equ3.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-5)
PRAでは(1-5)式で与える平均値をリスクの点推定値と呼ぶが，リスクの評価では平均値以外にその分布の形や分散などの統計量も考慮することも必要になる．
*** 1.3 PRAにおけるリスクの数学的定式化4) [#rb1f07d0]
1975年に正式に公表された米国原子力委員会による「原子炉安全研究」は，このプロジェクトのリーダの名前をとってラスムッセンレポートないし報告書のレポート番号からWASH-1400とも言われる．これが確率論的リスク評価法（PRA）を初めて体系化したものである．5)
WASH-1400ではリスクを推定する方法として，科学的用語としてのリスクの定義に準拠している．すなわち，①事象の「期待頻度」F（事象回数／単位時間），②損害の推定大きさDを用いてリスクRを次式で定義している．
#ref("equ4.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-6)
そして事象発生によるリスクには複数個のタイプがあること，時間的経過や累積効果があることなどを考慮してさまざまなリスク表現の数学的定式化を行っている．
まずリスク密度Ri(xj,t)として｢事象Eiが時間tに発生し，タイプjの事故影響の損害のレベルがxjからxj+dxjになる頻度｣としている．このリスク密度を用いると，「事象Eiが時間tに発生し，タイプjの事故影響の損害がXj以上になる」リスクRi(≧Xj,t)が，次式により定義できる．
#ref("equ5.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-7)
また｢運転中のあるシステムが，ある時間tにすべての生起しうる事故事象によって生じる複合リスク｣R(≧Xj,t)を，次式によって推定することができる．
#ref("equ6.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-8)
また(1-8)式を時間Tまで時間積分すると，次式により累積複合リスクR(≧Xj,T)が推定できる．
#ref("equ7.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-9)
一方，システムの運転によって受ける事故影響のタイプが複数あるときに，タイプkの事故影響に換算して事象Eiによる総合リスクRi(k)(t)をあらわすには次式を用いる．
#ref("equ8.PNG")
RIGHT:(1-10)
ただし，aj(k)は総合化係数である．
以上のように，PRAにおけるリスクの定義では，事故のタイプ，時間的蓄積効果，異種の事故影響の総合化などを数学的定式化により明確にしている．
WASH-1400は1970年代に米国で建設が相次いだ原子力発電所がもたらしうる原子力事故のリスクを，他の自然災害や人為災害によるリスクと比較することを目的としていた．そこでは，原子力事故の影響として，①早発性死亡，②早発性疾病，③潜在的な癌死亡，④甲状腺瘤発生，⑤財産の損失，一方，自然災害や人為災害では，①死亡者数，②喪失した労働者の人数・月，③喪失した金額 を評価対象としていた．一方WASH-1400で取り扱われた非原子力災害のリスク評価では，放射線障害のような長期的影響を考慮されなくて比較的短期の影響を対象としていた．しかしその後，環境公害問題の高まりとともに，PRAによる非原子力災害の評価でも「大気の汚染度」，「水質の悪化率」，さらには「地球温暖化ガス放出量」といった環境影響も対象になっている．
[[前の頁>教材/（２）リスクとリスクアセスメントの基本的な考え方]] [[目次>教材/（２）リスクとリスクアセスメントの基本的な考え方]] [[次の頁>教材（２）/２．リスクと安全性]]
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